For Indians looking to travel to the Middle Kingdom, a direct flight is still some distance.
Despite cooling hostilities, the Indian security establishment is opposed to direct flights that remain suspended since 2020, two people aware of the matter said, given unresolved national security concerns. China has repeatedly pressed for a resumption, including on the sidelines of the recent G20 Summit when Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi met external affairs minister S. Jaishankar.
“Currently, our security establishment is not in favour of resumption of direct flights with China," said a top Indian government official, one of the two people cited above, requesting anonymity.
While resuming direct flights might support the economy and improve people-to-people ties, India's caution aligns with its broader strategy of reducing dependence on Chinese goods and services, emphasizing self-reliance and safeguarding strategic interests. Since 2020, India has imposed several measures against Chinese entities, including banning Chinese apps, tightening visa protocols, and restricting investments.
Queries emailed to the spokespersons of ministries of home affairs, external affairs, civil aviation, Prime Minister's Office, and the Chinese embassy in New Delhi on Monday remained unanswered.
“The key concern behind the opposition to flight resumption is the trust deficit. The standoff over flight resumption may only end after top-level discussions in the matter," the second person said, also on the condition of anonymity.
India-China direct flights stopped in 2020 as countries shut air travel during the covid-19 outbreak. The Indian government decided to not lift the direct flight ban in the wake of the Galwan clash in June 2020 between Indian and Chinese soldiers, where 20 Indian soldiers lost their lives.
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The ban on direct flights remains despite India being China’s largest trade partner. In FY24, India imported goods worth $101.75 billion from China, primarily comprising raw materials and minerals, while exports totalled $16.67 billion, commerce ministry data showed. India's goods trade deficit with China widened to $57.83 billion during April-October from $51.12 billion a year ago. A trade deficit occurs when a country's imports exceed its exports. In October, the trade deficit stood at $8.46 billion, up from $8.27 billion a year ago.
Experts say resuming direct flights will benefit China more, given its trade advantage.
"As of now, the terms of trade between India and China are tilted in favour of China," said Pralok Gupta, associate professor at Indian Institute of Foreign Trade (IIFT). "If flight services are resumed, resulting in better business connectivity, the advantages will likely be more in favour of Chinese businesses. However, with the rise of industries such as electronic goods in India, where exports have shown a significant growing trend recently, easier business connectivity through the resumption of flights would help in the sourcing of raw materials, such as metals and ceramics. This may prove beneficial for our exports to third countries,” Gupta added.
Indian traders, on their part, are in favour of resuming direct flights.
“The lack of direct air connectivity between the two countries is posing significant challenges for Indian traders. Currently, traders are forced to take indirect routes, leading to increased time and costs for reaching key business hubs in China,” said Naresh Gupta, president of the Indo-China Chamber of Commerce.
Prior to the suspension, airlines such as Air India, IndiGo and China Airlines operated over 500 monthly direct flights between India and China. Currently, those travelling to Chinese cities such as Beijing, Shenzhen and Shanghai need to fly via countries such as Hong Kong, Singapore and Dubai, extending travel times by as much as four hours.
“Among the steps discussed were the resumption of the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra pilgrimage, data sharing on trans-border rivers, direct flights between India and China and media exchanges,” India’s external affairs ministry said in a 19 November statement after the Jaishankar-Wang meeting.
This also comes in the backdrop of Indian exporters rerouting critical machinery and materials through Dubai’s Jebel Ali port to mitigate disruptions caused by China’s export restrictions to India, as reported by Mint earlier. China’s refusal to provide these equipment and materials is being seen as a deliberate tactic to stifle India’s economic growth. To bypass these supply chain bottlenecks, Indian importers show Dubai as the import destination, from where they are being rerouted to India. However, this rerouting process is resulting in cost time over-run.
"No doubt, flights between India and China should resume, but not at the cost of the country's security. Exporters and cargo are reaching China via transit routes, and direct flights would save both time and money. Ultimately, it is the supreme authorities who should take the final call," said C.K. Govil, president of the Air Cargo Agents Association of India.
