US Election 2024: Kamala Harris or Donald Trump - who is better for India?

US Election 2024: Republican Donald Trump is projected to win states like Indiana, Kentucky, West Virginia, South Carolina and Florida, while Democrat Kamala Harris captured Vermont, Massachusetts and Maryland as polling closed in the six states in the US Presidential Elections on November 5.

Many of the key battleground states, however, are yet to be called.

India is closely watching the neck-and-neck contest between Harris and Trump. The outcome of the US presidential elections could impact India-US bilateral ties in defence, trade, and other strategic sectors.

A victory for Trump or Harris could reshape India-US ties, alter strategies, and impact the role India plays in global geopolitics, especially with respect to rising China, the crisis in West Asia, and Russia’s ongoing war with Ukraine.

Mint takes a look at who will be better for India as US President– Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?

In August, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said India will be able to work with the President of the United States, “whoever he or she will be.”

“The American system will throw up its verdict… we have every confidence that we will be able to work with the president of the United States, whoever he or she will be,” Jaishankar said at the launch of ‘Indiaspora Impact report,’ a diaspora event in New Delhi.

Donald Trump, the Republican Nominee

The implications of a potential Trump presidency in the US for India depend on foreign policy, trade relations, and strategic partnerships. The overall outcome, however, would be driven by the broader geopolitical landscape and Trump's policy decisions during his tenure.

Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India worked with Trump during his previous term as US President from 2017 and 2021. The term saw strengthened US-India relations, highlighted by defence agreements and regional initiatives.

‘Howdy Modi!’

In September 2019, then-US President Donald Trump hosted PM Modi in Texas. The ‘Howdy, Modi!’ event in Houston was attended by about 50,000 people. A year later, Modi welcomed Trump in his home state of Gujarat for an event attended by over 120,000 people.

Trump, however, lost the US Presidential Election 2020 to Joe Biden.

Analysts consider Trump, 78, more favourable for India than Harris, given his anti-China and pro-Russia positions, despite Harris' Indian parentage. However, there are concerns, especially regarding possible challenges for India in trade and tariffs during the possible Trump presidency.

Last month, while campaigning in Michigan, Trump labelled India an “abuser” of import tariffs while praising Modi as a “fantastic man.” 

He also indicated that if elected, he would implement what he termed "reciprocal trade" policies.

Strategy, economy and trade

On strategic matters, Trump is expected to continue a US-India partnership in areas such as defence and counter-terrorism, considering the shared interest in countering China. India-US relations are often seen through the common China prism.

If elected, Trump is likely to bring changes to US economic policies, which could certainly have ripple effects on the manufacturing and technology sectors in India.

Trump will continue his ‘America First’ and protectionist approach, which could impact trade and tariff agreements.

Kamala Harris - The Indian Roots

Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, was seen invoking her South Asian identity. Her mother, Shyamala Gopalan, was born in Chennai before moving to the US.

Harris, 60, is the first Black woman and first person of South Asian descent to accept the US presidential nomination. The US has never had a woman President.

A potential Harris administration could result in a bilateral relationship between the two nations that could be influenced by her Indian background and her administration’s foreign policy priorities.

Harris is expected to carry forward most of the trade policies established under the Joe Biden administration with a focus on economic resilience and domestic manufacturing. She is also expected to continue the Biden administration’s firm stance against the Russian war in Ukraine and efforts to curb Chinese influence in Asia, which resonates with India’s strategic interests.

Harris-Modi Bonding?

Harris, however, does not enjoy the same level of bonding with PM Modi as Trump does. As a senator, Harris had been critical of Modi’s revocation of Article 370, which stripped Jammu and Kashmir of its special status in August 2019.

A report by global financial services group Nomura said that a possible Trump administration, when compared with the one led by Harris, could be beneficial for India.

“A possible friction in bilateral trade due to Trump’s policies could be outweighed by supply chain benefits, and India will be a relative beneficiary due to its domestic demand-driven growth model and benefits from lower commodity prices, supply chain shifts and foreign policy,” the report said.