US Election 2024: What if Kamala Harris becomes America’s first woman president? What could it mean for India?

In August 2024, speaking at the Democratic National Convention, Presidential nominee Kamala Harris invoked her South Asian identity by mentioning her mother, Shyamala Gopalan.

"My mother was 19 when she crossed the world alone, travelling from India to California with an unshakable dream," Harris said in her speech at the convention.  Gopalan, who died in 2009, has left an indelible mark on her. "She taught us to never complain about injustice but to do something about it," the US Vice President said.

Gopalan was born and raised in Madras, now Chennai, before moving to the US. Her father PV Gopalan was a civil servant. In 1962, she met Donald Harris. The two got married a year later, in 1963.

As Harris and Republican nominee, Donald Trump go on a campaign blitz in battleground states ahead of November 5 US Presidential Election, a big question now remains – will America get its first woman president or a second Donald Trump term? Analysts are evaluating the implication of a possible Kamala Harris US administration on India. Here are some key sectors that could see the impact.

Indian Background

Kamala Harris, is the first Black woman and first person of South Asian descent to accept the presidential nomination of a major party in the United States. The US has never had a woman President. 

A potential Kamala Harris administration could result in bilateral relationship between the two nations that could be influenced by her Indian background and her administration’s foreign policy priorities.

As President, Harris is expected to carry forward most of the trade policies established under the Joe Biden administration.These policies will focus on economic resilience, domestic manufacturing, and reduce reliance on global supply chains, experts said.

Harris, who celebrated her 60th birthday this Sunday, is likely to continue the Biden administration’s firm stance against Russian war in Ukraine and efforts to curb Chinese influence in Asia, which, in a way, will resonate with India’s strategic interests. India’s relation with the US is mostly seen through the prism of China.

‘Carry Forward’

Some analysts, however, see a little divergence from President Biden’s ‘accommodating’ approach towards Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government. This primarily because, as a senator, Harris had been critical of Modi’s revocation of Article 370, which stripped Jammu and Kashmir of its special status in August 2019.

“Questions about a potential Kamala Harris administration will revolve around how much continuity or change there will be from the Biden administration regarding policy and personnel," writes Dr Chietigj Bajpaee, political analyst at Chatham House, a British think tank based in London, England.

The Biden Years

During the outgoing Biden administration, India’s bilateral relations with the US witnessed cooperation in strategy, defence, trade, health, and climate change.

Initiatives like Quad improved military and strategic relations between the two nations. The increased sales of defence products, joint drills, and intelligence sharing further strengthened the relations.

Harris is expected to continue on this path, with focus on areas like cyber defence, artificial intelligence, and space collaboration through other forums such as the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF).

Indo-US ties

Analysts say Harris is expected to focus on strengthening diplomatic, economic and cultural ties between the two nations. One would expect to see an improvement in trade deals and partnerships between India and the United States, especially in defence and technology sectors

Harris is a person of Indian descent. This aspect, analysts say, might lead to cultural understanding and collaboration between the two nations

The tariffs imposed by Donald Trump in his tenure were extended by the Joe Biden administration. Whether Harris intends to continue these tariffs remains to be seen. However, unlike Trump, Harris is not expected to resort to tariffs to reduce dependence on the global market. Analysts said that Harris has, instead, emphasised taxing the American rich and giving tax breaks to the middle class.

Regional Security Matters

A potential Harris administration is expected to support India in regional security matters, especially on issues concerning China. All this could happen while advocating for a stable Indo-Pacific region.

With China on the rise, Harris, too, would prefer to maintain peace in the region with the help of other nations, including India.

Many analysts see a focus on partnerships in AI, cybersecurity and digital infrastructure with the potential Harris administration’s focus on technology and innovation.

India and the US have been sharing Climate Change concerns. With Harris focusing on environmental issues, India could expect enhanced collaboration with the US on climate change initiatives, particularly in sustainable development and renewable energy, during the potential Harris Presidency.

All this will depend on the election results about two weeks away. As things stand, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are involved in a fierce race that many polls suggest is effectively tied, according to reports.