Who will win Maharashtra Assembly Elections 2024 – Mahayuti or MVA? Know what THIS pre-poll survey reveals

A pre-poll survey has predicted that the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) is likely to win 151 to 162 seats in the upcoming Maharashtra Assembly Elections 2024. 

If the survey predictions hold true, the MVA will wrest power from Mahayuti in the upcoming election in Maharashra, where the majority mark in the 288-member assembly is 145.

The survey predicts that the ruling Mahayuti may get anywhere between 115-128 seats. The others are predicted to win 5-14 seats.

The Mahayuti vote share will be 37-40 per cent while that of MVA will be 43-46 per cent as per the survey, conducted by Lok Poll.

In Maharashtra, the BJP, in alliance with Ajit Pawar-led NCP and Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena under the ruling Mahayuti banner, is contesting against the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance comprising the Shiv Sena (UBT), the NCP (Sharad Pawar) and the Congress in the November 20 election for 288 seats. Votes will be counted on November 23.

The Lok Poll survey was conducted with approximately 300 samples per assembly constituency. Over all 86,400 samples were used for the survey.

The same pre-poll survey proved wrong in previous assembly elections. In case of Haryana elections, the Lok Poll had predicted a clean sweep for Congress which did not eventually happen as BJP returned to power. in Madhya Pradesh too, this survey wrongly predicted a win for the Congress party.

In 2019 assembly election, the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) of the BJP and Shiv Sena (SHS) won a majority in Maharashtra. But the BJP and the Shiv Sena (undivided) parted wasys spearheading a political turmoil in the state. Two major parties – the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) – saw splits leading to alliances in power and in the opposition.

There have been three different chief ministers in Maharashtra in last five years. These include BJP’s Devendra Fadnavis, Shiv Sena’s (UBT) Uddhav Thackeray, and now Shiv Sena’s (SHS) Eknath Shinde.

Other survey gives Mahayuti an edge

A few days ago, another opinion poll Matrize predicted that the ruling Mahayuti will return to power in Maharashtra.

The Mahayuti is predicted to get 145-165 seats in Maharashtra's 288-member assembly while the MVA is predicted to win around 106-126 seats, according to this survey conducted between October 10 and November 9, covered 1,09,628 respondents.

The Mahayuti is likely to get 47 percent of the vote share compared to 41 percent for the MVA, the Matrize survey said.