Assembly Election 2024: Why Vidarbha is central to Mahayuti vs MVA power struggle in Maharashtra | Explained

Maharashtra Election 2024: The high-decibel campaign for the Maharashtra assembly election ended on November 18. Voting for 288 seats of the crucial state will be held on November 20 and the results will be declared on November 23.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), in alliance with Ajit Pawar-led NCP and Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena under the ruling Mahayuti banner, is contesting against the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance comprising the Shiv Sena (UBT), the NCP (Sharad Pawar) and the Congress.

The Maharashtra's landscape is generally divided into six regions: Marathwada, Vidarbha, Western Maharashtra, North Maharashtra, Mumbai region, and the Thane-Konkan region.

Located in the eastern part of Maharashtra, the Vidarbha region, comprising 11 districts, is of significant political, economic, and cultural importance. With 62 Assembly seats, the region is decisive in Maharashtra’s politics.

Vidarbha spreads from Maoist-affected Gadchiroli to Nagpur, where the headquarters of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) – BJP's ideological parent – is situated.

The region is known for cotton production but is often perceived as underdeveloped compared to the western and coastal regions of the state. The area frequently faces agrarian crises, including high rates of farmer suicides.

A Congress bastion until 90s

The electoral outcome in Vidarbha is seen as a potential game-changer in Maharashtra, making it a vital region for political parties aiming to secure a majority.

Historically, the region was a Congress bastion until the BJP breached it in the 1990s. Like in the past, many political heavyweights from both alliances, including Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, state BJP chief Chandrashekhar Bawankule, and state Congress president Nana Patole, are in the fray from Vidarbha region in the upcoming election.

“The region holds the key to the fate of both the BJP and Congress,” said Mumbai-based political analyst Amitabh Tiwari.

As many as 35 out of the 76 seats where the BJP and Congress are head-to-head fall in Vidarbha, Tiwari explained. “The other two parties – the NCP and the Shiv Sena – have a limited presence in the region,” he said.

Road to power in Maharashtra goes through Vidarbha

In the 2014 Assembly elections, the BJP won 44 of the 62 seats in Vidarbha. The Congress won 10 seats. The BJP-Shiv Sena alliance government led by Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis completed the five-year term.

In the 2019 assembly polls, however, the BJP won 29 seats while the Congress managed to win 15 seats in Vidarbha. The BJP-Shiv Sena won the majority. But the alliance didn’t last long. The coalition crumbled soon and what followed was a political turmoil in Maharashtra.

This explains why analysts say that the road to the Maharashtra throne goes through Vidarbha.

Analysing Lok Sabha Polls

In the Lok Sabha Elections 2024, the BJP lost ground in Maharashtra. It won just nine of the 28 Lok Sabha seats it contested, as against 23 of the 25 seats it contested in the 2019 general elections.

Overall, the Mahayuti won 17 of Maharashtra’s 48 seats. The MVA won 30 seats. In Vidarbha, Mhayuti won only three of 10 Lok Sabha seats in 2024 general elections.

If one looks at the 62 seats based on Lok Sabha Election 2024 results, the MVA bagged 42 assembly seats while the Mahayuti won 19 seats. Remember, people generally vote differently in Lok Sabha and Assembly elections.

Based on the Lok Sabha Election 2024 results, the Congress won 23 of the 36 assembly seats in the direct Congress vs BJP fight, while the BJP won 13.

Key for Congress & BJP

For obvious reasons, the BJP has fielded 47 of the 150 seats from Vidarbha, while the Congress has fielded about 40 per cent of its 102 Maharashtra candidates from Vidarbha.

“The road to Maharashtra throne goes through Vidarbha. The battle here decides which way the wind is blowing,” says Tiwari. Historically, too, the party that wins Vidarbha has gone on to form the government in Maharashtra.

This is precisely why the top leaders from both alliances—Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah, and Rahul Gandhi, the leader of the opposition in the Lok Sabha — campaigned in the region.

In September, during a meeting with BJP workers, Union Home Minister Amit Shah underlined the significance of winning the Vidarbha region. Shah had emphasised in the meeting that the party which wins Vidarbha wins Maharashtra.

In October, Modi kicked off the ruling Mahayuti and the BJP’s poll campaign in Maharashtra from Washim in Vidarbha. In the first week of November, Rahul Gandhi launched the Congress party’s poll campaign by participating in a ‘Samvidhan Sammelan’ (conference on the Constitution) from Nagpur, in Vidarbba.