Following the conclusion of the second big cycle of state elections in 2024, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has reclaimed some of the political ground it had ceded in the general election held earlier this year. Be it in states or at the Centre, be it by itself or with allies, the BJP has strengthened its hand and increased its leverage across the three broad sides of the Indian political spectrum: itself, the Congress party, and the wide variety of regional parties.
This year, the BJP won in Odisha for the first time, and even in Haryana where it was facing anti-incumbency and was not expected to win. Now it has won decisively in Maharashtra—where it had wrested power in 2019 although it didn’t have the numbers to form the state government by itself.
The BJP's next test of strength will be in Delhi early next year and in Bihar in late 2025. In Delhi, the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has been at odds with the office of the lieutenant governor, appointed by the Centre. AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal had to step down as chief minister after he was jailed for administrative decisions. Other senior AAP ministers have also done jail time. And earlier this month, Kailash Gahlot, who was one of the AAP’s six ministers in Delhi and among its tallest leaders, crossed over to the BJP.
In Bihar, the BJP was the driving force behind realignments among regional parties in January, paving the way for its return to power. Bihar has parallels with Maharashtra. The BJP will be hoping for an outcome like Maharashtra, where it cedes ground to allies in the chaotic short term but emerges stronger once the dust has settled.
The BJP has increased its states footprint over the past decade or so. The table below maps state elections over four Lok Sabha cycles, beginning May 2009, when the Congress was the dominant national party and the BJP played second fiddle.
Once it came to power at the Centre under the leadership of Narendra Modi, the BJP’s winnability in state elections increased—from five states under the Lok Sabha term of the Congress-led alliance to 12 states each in Modi’s first and second terms. Several of these wins came at the expense of the Congress. In all regions barring southern Indian states, the BJP has gone from being the chaser to the chased.
The Congress now rules in just three states: Karnataka, Telangana and Himachal Pradesh. Of the three large blocks in Indian politics—the BJP, Congress, and regional parties—the Congress has emerged the weakest in the latest round. In Maharashtra, it contested the maximum seats in its tripartite alliance, but had a strike rate of just 16%. Even in Jharkhand, where it ended on the winning side, its strike rate was the lowest among the three parties in its alliance. That won’t help the Congress in Delhi and Bihar, where the contests are centred around regional parties.
The latest state election results are also a moment of reckoning for some regional parties that also have a presence in the Lok Sabha. Notably, the nine members of Parliament from the Shiv Sena (UBT) and the eight MPs of NCP (SP). Both parties have been decimated in their home state of Maharashtra. Could they realign at the Centre to maintain their political relevance? Under India's anti-defection law, if two-thirds of MPs from a party shift to another party, they can avoid disqualification.
In the Lok Sabha, the BJP is 32 seats below the majority mark of 272, and has been leaning on the Janata Dal (United), its partner in Bihar, and the Telugu Desam Party, whose leader N. Chandrababu Naidu is the chief minister of Andhra Pradesh.
Following the Lok Sabha election earlier this year, there was some conversation on how long that alliance would hold. Following its victory in Maharashtra, the BJP may have added options for itself at the Centre too.
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