Pre-poll populist promises key driver behind Mahayuti’s victory in Maharashtra, INDIA bloc’s win in Jharkhand: Report

Election Results: The Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP)-led Mahayuti alliance in Maharashtra and the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)-led INDIA Bloc in Jharkhand recorded significant victories in the assembly elections. Out of all the factors contributing towards sweeping victories of both the alliances in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, pre-poll promises have been a critical factory.

In Maharashtra, the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance won 236 seats out of 288. Whereas in Jharkhand, the JMM-led INDIA Bloc secured 56 out of 81 seats.

According to a report by Emkay Global Financial Services, which has been titled ‘India state elections – Incumbent sweep riding on freebie wave', pre-poll promises have been a crucial factor in electoral success in the last 18 months.

Freebies have been a key issue for every election in the country. However, this trend has been more persistent since the last assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh.

One key contribution to the Mahayuti alliance's thumping victory was the Ladki Bahin scheme, which provided ₹1,500 monthly financial assistance to women. Similar schemes were introduced by other state governments in the last 18 months.

Hemant Soren led JMM government implemented a similar scheme in the state by providing ₹1,000 financial assistance for women every month. Both these schemes have significantly contributed towards poll victories, the report said. With this winning trend, similar schemes are likely to be implemented during election season in other states as well.

Mahayuti's win will be beneficial for Maharashtra in the medium term, as the state has been dealing with a political imbalance in the last few years due to frequent changes in the mandate. This hampered the growth and development of the state. With the BJP in power in both the Centre and the state, it will allow to address issues of the state and improve infrastructure spending, the report said.

However, the state may face challenges in terms of fiscal balance due to the implementation of poll promises. The Mahayuti alliance has promised to raise the aid of the Ladki Bahin scheme to ₹2,100 per month from the present ₹1,500 per month. This will increase budgetary expenses by 40 per cent to ₹644 billion from ₹460 billion, adding an additional cost of around ₹70-90 billion.

JMM, too, has promised an increased allowance in a similar scheme to ₹2,500 per month from ₹1,000, bringing the expenditure to ₹90 billion from ₹60 billion initially budgeted in FY25.

The fiscal metrics of Maharashtra have worsened over the years. However, the first half of FY25 has witnessed a comfortable situation for both Maharashtra and Jharkhand, mainly due to limited expenditure on capex, the report said.

According to report, rising expenditure on freebies will impact revenue expenditure as the current committed expenditure is 66 per cent and 36 per cent of revenue receipts, respectively, the report said. These freebies will add pressure on fiscal balance as the states face revenue mobilisation issues as well. This will result in a mild change in budget estimates leading to lower capex.