Maharashtra Election 2024 could be a make-or-break moment for Mahayuti and MVA. Here’s why

The upcoming Maharashtra Election 2024 is a direct contest between the ruling Mahayuti alliance and the Opposition's Maha Aghadi Vikas (MVA). Both coalitions have their equal share of challenges, especially after testing the waters in the recently-concluded Lok Sabha and Haryana Assembly elections.

Mahayuti is an alliance of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar's Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). It's key contender is the MVA , led by the Congress, Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena-UBT and Sharad Pawar's NCP-SP. Except the BJP and the Congress, all the four parties are regional political parties in Maharashtra.

Here's how this Maharashtra election is a battle of survival for these two coalition parties:

The ruling Mahayuti

Lok Sabha debacle: The ruling BJP-Shiv Sena-NCP alliance witnessed a setback in the Lok Sabha Election 2024 at the hands of the MVA partners. Overall, the MVA won 30 of 48 seats, and the Mahayuti won only 17 seats. An Independent candidate won one seat.

The Congress emerged as the single-largest party by winning a maximum of 13 of the 48 Lok Sabha seats in the state. Shiv Sena-UBT tied with rival BJP at 9 seats each, while Sharad Pawar's party won 8 seats.

NCP's big loss: The biggest loser was Ajit Pawar's NCP, which is part of the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance. It won just a single seat in the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections. After the results, a Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS)-affiliated Marathi weekly blamed the BJP alliance with Ajit Pawar's party for its poor performance in the Lok Sabha polls in Maharashtra.

“Every worker [of the BJP], while narrating the unease and reasons for failure in the Lok Sabha polls [in Maharashtra], starts with the alliance with the NCP..." read the cover story titled “Karyakarta khachlela nahi, tar sambhramat (Worker is not discouraged, but confused)” in the latest issue of Vivek weekly, as reported by the Indian Express.

Anti-incumbency and other key challenges: Besides alliance with the NCP, several other factors were cited as the reason for the Mahayuti's loss in the Maharashtra Lok Sabha polls. These included the Maratha Quota row, and anger among the agrarian community over the government's 40 per cent duty on onions and an export ban.

Anti-incumbency is another factor that may impact the Mahayuti and Chief Minister Eknath Shinde's prospects in Maharashtra elections.

Haryana, ray of hope for BJP: However, the BJP's massive win in the Haryana Assembly polls is expected to boost the morale of party leaders and workers. Political expert Amitabh Tiwari believed that the Haryana election results may impact the decision of “undecided voters.” He explained that those who may think, “Why vote for Mahayuti because it lost the Lok Sabha elections?” – they may want to reevaluate their decision on whom to vote for.

The opposition MVA

The MVA is fighting to wrest Maharashtra from Mahayuti. Currently in the Opposition, the MVA—boosted by the Lok Sabha results—hopes to win the Maharashtra assembly polls in November.

However, the debacle in the October Haryana Assembly Elections came as a blow to the Congress. The BJP emerged victorious in the Haryana Assembly Election, winning 48 out of the 90 seats. The BJP defeated the Congress in a head-on battle, and the grand old party won 37 seats.

It's predicted that the outcome of the Haryana Elections may impact the Maharashtra polls. But how it may impact remains uncertain. Tiwari said that the "neutral voters"—who are not ideologically aligned with the BJP but are voting for the BJP—"may get this feeling that the BJP is still in contention and wait to see how."

Party-wise threats: Besides, the Congress lacks a prominent face in Maharashtra. It may also stare at a leadership tussle. It's speculated that the party will have to haggle with its allies for leadership roles.

At the same time, Sharad Pawar's NCP-SP looks to consolidate its grassroots base and establish authority as it fights its rival Ajit Pawar "real NCP" in seven assembly constituencies. Besides, many leaders of Sharad Pawar's NCP faction are still facing criminal cases.

Meanwhile, Uddhav Thackeray aims to counter Eknath Shinde and his image as a man of action. Thackeray also fights the charge that he turned his back to Hindutva, The Times of India reported.

All eyes are now on the high-stake battle for 288 assembly seats in Maharashtra Assembly that will be held on November 20. The results will be announced on November 23.