Axis My India Maharashtra Exit Poll: Mahayuti projected to win 178-200 seats, MVA likely to get 82-102 seats

The Axis My India exit poll for the 2024 Maharashtra assembly elections, which was released on Thursday, a day after most exit polls predicted a big win for the Mahayuti alliance, showed that the ruling bloc, comprising the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Shiv Sena (Shinde), and NCP (Ajit Pawar), would clinch victory with 178 to 200 seats. Meanwhile, the opposition MVA alliance, which includes the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and NCP (Sharad Pawar), is projected to secure between 82 and 102 seats.

The exit poll, which covers all 288 constituencies, provides insight into the competitive landscape ahead of the final results.

Mahayuti Alliance: Expected seat and vote share

The Mahayuti alliance, which includes the BJP, Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde faction), and NCP (Ajit Pawar faction), is projected to win between 178 and 200 seats, securing 48 per cent of the vote share.

The projected seat distribution for Mahayuti is as follows:

BJP: 98 to 107 seats

Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde faction): 53 to 58 seats

NCP (Ajit Pawar faction): 25 to 30 seats

JSS/RSVA/RYSP: 2 to 5 seats

Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA): Projected seats and vote share

The Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), an alliance led by the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and NCP (Sharad Pawar faction), is projected to secure between 82 and 102 seats, with a 37 per cent vote share.

The expected seat breakdown for MVA is:

Congress: 28 to 36 seats

Shiv Sena (UBT): 26 to 32 seats

NCP (Sharad Pawar faction): 26 to 30 seats

SP/PWPI: 2 to 4 seats
Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) and Others: Projected shares

The Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) is projected to secure 0 seats with a 3 per cent vote share.

The Others category, which includes parties and independents, is expected to win 6 to 12 seats, with a 12 per cent vote share.

This category comprises parties like BSP, MNS, AIMIM, and others.

Seats contested by parties

The following parties contested various numbers of seats across the state:

BJP: 149 seats

Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde faction): 81 seats

NCP (Ajit Pawar faction): 59 seats

Congress: 101 seats

Shiv Sena (UBT): 95 seats

NCP (Sharad Pawar faction): 86 seats

VBA: 200 seats

BSP: 237 seats

MNS: 125 seats

AIMIM: 17 seats

Exit Poll Results 2024 LIVE Updates Here

Margin of error in exit poll result

The Axis My India exit poll results come with a margin of error of +2 per cent, meaning the final outcome could vary slightly from the projected results.

As Maharashtra awaits the official election results on November 23, the Axis My India exit poll provides a snapshot of the likely political scenario, with Mahayuti expected to lead, followed by MVA. However, the final outcome will depend on voter turnout and any last-minute shifts in support.

This was the first assembly poll in Maharashtra after the split in the Shiv Sena and the NCP. The majority mark in the 288-member state assembly is 145.