Maharashtra, Jharkhand Election Results today: Here’s what exit polls signal on outcome

The Election Commission of India will begin the counting of votes for assembly elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand at 8 am on November 23. The 288 seats of Maharashtra voted in a single phase on November 20. The 81 seats of Jharkhand voted in two phases – November 13 and November 20.

The contest in Maharashtra is bipolar between the ruling Mahayuti alliance and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). In Jharkhand, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)-led INDIA bloc is up against the Bhartiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA).

Exit Poll Results in Maharashtra

The exit poll results were released on November 20, soon after the last vote was polled in both the states. Almost all the exit polls predicted a clean sweep for ruling Mahayuti in Maharashtra.

Five out of eight exit polls predicted a return of BJP-led Mahayuti alliance in Maharashtra Assembly elections 2024.

The Mahayuti alliance comprises the BJP, the Ajit Pawar-led NCP and Chief Minister Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, while the MVA has the Shiv Sena (UBT), the NCP (Sharad Pawar) and the Congress party as constituents.

Pradeep Gupta-led Axis My India has predicted a clean sweep for Mahayuti in Maharashtra with 178 seats in the 288-member house. The pollster said that the BJP will emerge as the largest party in the Maharashtra assembly elections 2024. The MVA is likely to get 82 to 102 seats, according to this pollster.

The majority mark in the 288-member Maharashtra assembly is 145.

The ABP News-Matrize predicted that the ruling Mahayuti alliance will win 150-170 seats, while the MVA gets 110-130 seats in Maharashtra.

The P-Marq, another exit poll, predicted majority for Mahayuti with 137-158 seats. The MVA may bag 126-146 seats according to this pollster. People's Pulse predicted 182 seats for Mahayuti and 97 for the MVA .

The Times Now-JVC exit poll gave 150-167 seats to Mahayuti and 107-125 seats to MVA.

The exit polls have not been accurate always.

The Lokshahi-Rudra exit poll has predicted a close contest between the two alliances in Maharashtra. The exit poll has predicted 128-142 seats for the Mahayuti and 119-140 seats for MVA. Electoral Edge also gave edge to the MVA.

The exit polls, however predicted neck-and-neck fight between the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Jharkhand and JMM-led INDIA bloc on Jharkhand.

Exit Polls are predictions based on voter feedback gathered by survey agencies after the polling. The larger idea behind the exit polls is to reflect public sentiment well before the results are announced.

Jharkhand Exit Polls

Exit polls predicted a neck-and-neck contest in Jharkhand. 

In the 81-member Jharkhand assembly, a political party or an alliance needs to win at least 41 seats to form government. Jharkhand is currently ruled by the INDIA bloc-–the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), the Congress and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD).

Three exit poll results gave an edge to the NDA over the ruling INDIA bloc in Jharkhand. One exit poll gave a sweep for INDIA bloc while others predicted a tight contest between the BJP -led NDA and the Opposition INDIA bloc in the state.

Pradeep Gupta's Axis My India predicted a lead for the JMM-led INDIA bloc in the state, winning 53 seats. The BJP-led NDA alliance is predicted to win 25 seats, according to the exit poll.

The Times Now-JVC exit poll predicted 40-44 seats for the BJP and its allies, and 30-40 seats for the INDIA bloc partners. The ABP- Matrize poll predicted 42-47 seats for the NDA and 25-30 seats for the INDIA bloc. Poeple's Pulse has given 42-48 seats to the NDA and 16-23 seats to INDIA bloc.

The P Marq exit poll predicted 31-40 seats for the NDA and 37 -47 seats for the INDIA bloc. Dainik Bhaskar has given 37-40 seats to the NDA and 36-39 to INDIA bloc.

Exit Polls in 2019

Exit poll accuracy has been scrutinised in the past. Almost all the exit polls got the Lok Sabha Elections 2024 results wrong.

Also, in recent Haryana Assembly Elections, the exit polls had predicted a victory for the Congress party in total contrast with actual results with actual results which saw the BJP coming back to power in the state.

In the 2019 assembly elections, the exit poll predictions for both Maharashtra and Jharkhand were accurate. The BJP-Shiv Sena alliance won Maharashtra and the JMM-Congres-RJD alliance won Jharkhand in 2019.