In a highly anticipated US Federal Reserve Chair’s speech at Jackson Hole Symposium in Wyoming on Friday, Jerome Powell said the time has come for interest rate cuts.
• “The time has come for policy to adjust.”
• “The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”
• “The upside risks to inflation have diminished. And the downside risks to employment have increased.”
• Powell’s “confidence has grown that inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2%,” after rising to about 7% during the COVID-19 pandemic.
• “We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions.”
• “We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress toward price stability. With an appropriate dialing back of policy restraint, there is good reason to think that the economy will get back to 2% inflation while maintaining a strong labor market.”
• “While the task is not complete, we have made a good deal of progress” toward restoring price stability.
• Powell ended his speech with a nod to the Fed’s upcoming framework review.
• He underscored the need to focus on lessons learned and “applying them flexibly to our current challenges”.
• His speech also analyzed the surge and decline of the country’s latest inflationary episode and the Fed’s reaction to it, outlining both the central bank’s mistake of initially believing rising prices to be transitory as well as its forceful response.
• The US central bank began to hike interest rates sharply more than two years ago as inflation rose to its worst levels in more than 40 years.
• Fed officials will meet in September for next monetary policy decision.
