Mint Primer | The escalating India-Canada rift and its implications for India

India-Canada ties descended to a new low this week with the two nations expelling diplomats of the other. Tensions have been running high for at least a year—ever since Canada accused the Indian government of involvement in the killing of Canadian Sikh Hardeep Singh Nijjar. Mint explains the fallout of the latest developments.

What happened this week?

India and Canada expelled six diplomats each after Canada declared six Indian diplomats as “persons of interest” in an ongoing investigation into the death of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Khalistan supporter. Nijjar was shot dead in Canada’s British Columbia province in June 2023. 

In September 2023, Canada Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said the country’s intelligence was investigating “credible allegations” that the Indian government was involved in killing. This week, Trudeau said India was not cooperating in the probe. Therefore, Ottawa issued a deportation notice for the Indian diplomats saying they posed “a threat to public safety in Canada”. 

News reports say Canada sought the revocation of diplomatic immunity of the six diplomats, including India’s high commissioner, Sanjay K. Verma. 

Does Canadian local politics play a role in this?

Ironically, tensions escalated after reports that the two countries were in talks on the Nijjar case. In January, retiring Canadian national security and intelligence adviser Jody Thomas indicated that India was cooperating with Canada, according to news reports. This prompts the question of whether politics played a role in Trudeau’s belligerence towards India.

Canada is due for election in 2025. In opinion polls, Trudeau’s rival, the Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, has a lead over him. Last month, Trudeau’s Liberal Party lost Montreal, which was considered a safe seat. A little earlier, Trudeau’s coalition partner, the New Democratic Party (NDP), withdrew support. The NDP’s Jagmeet Singh Brar is a Khalistan supporter.

What does the deepening India-Canada rift mean for economic ties?

India’s foreign ministry says trade and investment ties are an “integral component” of the bilateral partnership. Trade in goods touched $10.50 billion in 2022, while trade in services reached $8.74 billion. More than 600 Canadian companies are doing business in India. A key facet of the economic relationship is the investments by Canadian Pension Funds. These cumulatively add up to over $75 billion, says the Indian foreign ministry. 

India was also negotiating a free trade pact with Canada; this is now on hold. The economic partnership has so far been insulated from the political turmoil—analysts hope this trend continues. 

How is the US probe on a similar case progressing?

The US is investigating a 2023 murder plot against Indian-origin US-Canadian national Gurpatwant Singh Pannun. New Delhi has conveyed to the US that an Indian intelligence official, identified as “CC1”, allegedly involved in directing the Pannun plot had been arrested. An Indian team inquiring into the case will visit the US shortly.

What could be the trajectory of India-Canada ties going forward?

India seems to have given up on Trudeau. New Delhi dismissed the charges against its diplomats as “preposterous imputations”, ascribing them to Trudeau’s “vote bank politics”. 

Trudeau’s Liberal Party has representatives elected from nine constituencies that are dominated by Punjabi Sikhs, some of whom are vocal Khalistan supporters. There are 11 other Canadian constituencies with sizeable numbers of Punjabi Sikhs, out of a total 338 constituencies, say Canadian media. Anyone with prime ministerial ambitions will need this support. 

While Trudeau has not been sensitive to India on Khalistan, it is to be seen how the Conservative Party headed by Poilievre deals with this subject. The chill in India-Canada politics will last until Canadian politicians place a premium on ties with India and less on its Khalistani vote bank.

Elizabeth Roche is associate professor, Jindal Global University